July 2026 - National Insights Report
ALL EYES ON THE FED THIS WEEK
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week and the markets are forecasting a 40% chance that they hike short term interest rates. The likelihood of Fed rate increases in 2026 is still climbing. That’s one of the reasons that mortgage rates have surged to their highest levels in a year.
For most of the first half of 2026, conditions were modestly favorable for home sales to grow. Through the end of June, our count of home sales was 4% ahead of 2025. As mortgage rates have lurched back into the upper 6s recently, that is likely to slow buyer demand somewhat.
Data on the labor front could be a touch more favorable. Unemployment remains low, and we’re maybe seeing some slight improvements in hiring. The job growth rate has been very low recently, as companies resume hiring, hopefully this year, that should improve home sales with more work-driven relocations.
Also in this month’s National Economic Update, we have the latest data on the American homeowner’s very strong financial position, plus the latest on home prices and our inventory forecast for the rest of the year.
Our goal is always to help you understand what’s happening in the market right now, so you can make the best decisions.
